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Math lesson plan · 7th grade (Year 8 in England) · 30 minutes

Compare experimental and theoretical probability

Statistics and probability

CCSS 7.SP.C.6CCSS 7.SP.C.7.BEngland: KS3 ProbabilityEngland: GCSE Foundation Probability

Objective and success criteria

Students will: Compare experimental and theoretical probability.

  • I can answer questions on today's skill on my own, without help.
  • I can explain each step and say why it works.
  • I can check my answer and spot a mistake.

Before and after

Needs first: Experimental probability and expected results

Leads to: the next skill in this area.

Materials: Squared paper for charts, Class survey data, Sticky notes for a live chart, Mini whiteboards and pens, Printed student sheet (below).

Warm-up · 4 min

  • Quick retrieval from earlier learning (Experimental probability and expected results). Students answer on mini whiteboards.
  • Show answers together and note who needs support in the main task.
  1. Jamal flips a drawing pin 40 times. It lands point up 31 times. What is the relative frequency of landing point up? Give a fraction in simplest form. → 31/40Prompt: Relative frequency = number of times it happened ÷ number of trials.
  2. The probability of an event is 2/5. The experiment is done 125 times. How many times would you expect the event to happen? → 50Prompt: Expected number = probability × number of trials.
  3. Ben flips a drawing pin 50 times. It lands point up 32 times. What is the relative frequency of landing point up? Give a fraction in simplest form. → 16/25Prompt: Relative frequency = number of times it happened ÷ number of trials.

Hook · 3 min

  • Take a quick class survey (favorite fruit, travel to school) and ask what the results tell us.
  • Share the objective: Compare experimental and theoretical probability. Read the success criteria together.

I do: model it · 7 min

  • Work through the example out loud, saying why you do each step, not just what you do.
  • Example: A drawing pin is dropped 40 times. It lands point up 31 times. What is the experimental probability of landing point up? Give a fraction in simplest form.
  • Step 1: 31/40
  • Answer: 31/40
  • Pause after each step and ask a student to say what comes next.

We do: guided practice · 6 min

  • Do these together. Students try each step on whiteboards before you reveal it.
  • Use the hints as prompts rather than giving the answer.
  1. A drawing pin is dropped 25 times. It lands point up 17 times. What is the experimental probability of landing point up? Give a fraction in simplest form. → 17/25Prompt: Experimental probability = times it happened ÷ number of trials.
  2. A die is rolled 60 times and lands on 4 exactly 12 times. How many 4s would you expect from a fair die? How many more or fewer did you get? Give (actual − expected). → 2Prompt: Expected = number of rolls × 1/6.

You do: independent practice · 7 min

  • Students work on the student sheet. Circulate and check the first two answers of every student early.
  • Students who finish: write a question of their own for a partner, with the answer.

The 6 questions are on the student sheet below, with answers in the key.

Exit ticket · 3 min

  • Two questions on their own. Sort answers into got it / nearly / not yet to plan the next lesson.
  1. A drawing pin is dropped 25 times. It lands point up 17 times. What is the experimental probability of landing point up? Give a fraction in simplest form. → 17/25Prompt: Experimental probability = times it happened ÷ number of trials.
  2. A die is rolled 600 times and lands on 4 exactly 84 times. How many 4s would you expect from a fair die? How many more or fewer did you get? Give (actual − expected). → -16Prompt: Expected = number of rolls × 1/6.

Watch out for

  • Forgetting to put data in order before finding the median.
  • Reading a bar's height wrongly when the scale goes up in 2s or 5s.

Support and stretch

Support

  • Review first: Experimental probability and expected results.
  • Use concrete materials: squared paper for charts.
  • Give the first step of each question, or a partly worked example to finish.
  • Pair with a confident partner for the guided practice.

Stretch

  • Explain a common mistake in writing and how to fix it.
  • Write a word problem that uses today's skill, then solve a partner's.

Homework and more practice

Free online practice with hints and printable worksheets for this skill: eurekami.com/math/grade-7.

Free lesson plan from eurekami.com/lesson-plan-builder

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Compare experimental and theoretical probability

Name

Date

Score/ 6

  1. Question 1

    Diego flips a coin 20 times and Grace flips it 500 times. Whose proportion of heads is likely to be closer to 0.5?

    • A. Both will be exactly 0.5
    • B. Grace
    • C. Diego

  2. Question 2

    A drawing pin is dropped 80 times. It lands point up 17 times. What is the experimental probability of landing point up? Give a fraction in simplest form.

    Answer(as a fraction)

  3. Question 3

    A die is rolled 300 times and lands on 4 exactly 41 times. How many 4s would you expect from a fair die? How many more or fewer did you get? Give (actual − expected).

    Answer

  4. Question 4

    Fatima flips a coin 10 times and Leo flips it 1000 times. Whose proportion of heads is likely to be closer to 0.5?

    • A. Fatima
    • B. Leo
    • C. Both will be exactly 0.5

  5. Question 5

    A drawing pin is dropped 25 times. It lands point up 16 times. What is the experimental probability of landing point up? Give a fraction in simplest form.

    Answer(as a fraction)

  6. Question 6

    A die is rolled 120 times and lands on 4 exactly 21 times. How many 4s would you expect from a fair die? How many more or fewer did you get? Give (actual − expected).

    Answer

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Answer key: Compare experimental and theoretical probability

  1. 1. B. Grace

  2. 2. 17/80

  3. 3. -9

  4. 4. B. Leo

  5. 5. 16/25

  6. 6. 1